AMOC is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which brings warm water from the Gulf Stream to the UK and Scandinavia. The ocean current has weakened by around 15% and scientists warn there is a grave risk it will collapse around mid-century, but it could be sooner.
In November 2024 the National Preparedness Commission published a report on AMOC collapse that warned: “temperatures would drop across the Atlantic region, including by over 5C in Britain. Colder, drier conditions would largely wipe out crop growing in the British Isles.” It now appears likely the AMOC will collapse, which will dramatically reduce agricultural production globally, so the UK will be unable to import food. The reduction in UK agricultural production, coupled with an end to food imports, suggests our food supplies will be reduced by around 90%. The implications for cities like London are dire – we barely grow any of our food and we will starve.
The AMOC is part of a global ocean current system. The Southern Ocean current around Antarctica has recently undergone alarming changes making scientists concerned that we could be on the cusp of abrupt climate breakdown.
On 18 August 2025 a group of around 40 concerned citizens and scientists protested outside the Metropolitan Police HQ, BBC Broadcasting House and ITN HQ. We face an unprecedented national security threat, which is not being addressed by those responsible for protecting the people. To make matters worse, the dire warnings from scientists are being largely ignored by the media, so our nation is not preparing.
If UK food supplies are to be disrupted in the 2030s, with widespread collapse of agricultural output in the 2040s, the only chance we have of feeding 10 or 20 million people is if we begin to make sensible preparations now.
Most scientists believe it may be possible to avoid AMOC collapse, but that would require deep and immediate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. It is vital that the UK government demands much tougher action at the November COP30 climate negotiations in Brazil. But, if the world does not agree to dynamic action to stop greenhouse gas emissions, then the UK must prepare for catastrophe.
The science
For most people this is the greatest threat to your life. The science is complicated but it is essential you and your family understand the basics. For young people, when you understand the risks, you can make sensible decisions about your future.
Here is the background science, expert reports and articles that will help you understand the gravity of this threat: –
In October 2024 a group of 44 expert scientists issued a warning to the Nordic Council of Ministers to alert them to this threat. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) had long warned there was just a 10% chance of AMOC collapse before 2100, but the scientists warned the probability was much higher. See: –
https://en.vedur.is/media/ads_in_header/AMOC-letter_Final.pdf
In October 2024 the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative published a particularly alarming report which said: “The collapse of the AMOC would profoundly destabilise national and global security. Collapse would effectively wipe out crop growing in the UK and combined with other effects of climate change, would cause catastrophic losses to key crops globally. The cascading consequences for health, economic stability, political cohesion, trade and geopolitics would be severe, creating unmanageable security outcomes.” See: –
https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/the-security-blind-spot
In November 2024 the National Preparedness Commission published a report on AMOC collapse that warned: “temperatures would drop across the Atlantic region, including by over 5C in Britain. Colder, drier conditions would largely wipe out crop growing in the British Isles.” See: –
https://nationalpreparednesscommission.uk/publications/blind-spots-on-climate-tipping-points-reveal-complacency-on-climate-change-security-threats/
When the effects of AMOC collapse on the UK were first considered in 2020 Exeter University research suggests UK arable land would drop from 32% to 7%. See: -https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200113111145.htm
The science behind AMOC collapse is complex but one of the world’s leading scientists, Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the Oceans, gave this short presentation to the Arctic Circle Assembly in Reykjavik on 19 October 2024. See: –
In May 2025 he gave this longer presentation: ‘Atlantic ocean circulation: a dangerous tipping point for European climate?’. See: –
This research published on the Cornell University website showed an AMOC collapse probability range of between the years 2037 and 2064:-
https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.11738
From 30 June to 3 July 2025 Exeter University convened a meeting of nearly 200 scientists to consider the risks posed by the various planetary tipping points. The news release at the end included this urgent warning to world leaders: “Particularly alarming is the risk of collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which would plunge northwest Europe into prolonged severe winters, while radically undermining global food and water security.” See:-
‘Tipping points’ experts issue urgent message to world leaders
The AMOC ocean current is part of a global circulation system. It is not only the Atlantic ocean current that is weakening, and showing signs that could lead to collapse. Recent research into the The southern ocean current (SMOC) has revealed troubling changes in the salinity of water concentrations. The salinity and water density are part of the process that drives the overturning circulation. The research says: ” However, decades of surface freshening strengthened stratification, trapping subsurface heat at depth, sustaining expanded sea ice coverage and limiting deep convection along with open-ocean polynyas. Here, we show that since 2015, these conditions have reversed: Surface salinity in the polar Southern Ocean has increased, upper-ocean stratification has weakened, sea ice has reached multiple record lows, and open-ocean polynyas have reemerged.” See: ‘Rising surface salinity and declining sea ice: A new Southern Ocean state revealed by satellites’: –
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2500440122
On 20 August 2025 a plain English article was published in ‘The Conversation’, which explained the significance of what has happened in the southern ocean. See: -https://theconversation.com/from-sea-ice-to-ocean-currents-antarctica-is-now-undergoing-abrupt-changes-and-well-all-feel-them-262615
This was largely based upon this peer reviewed research: –
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09349-5
The global threat
In January 2025 the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries published a report warning of the risk 4 billion people could be killed at 3C of heating, and this could occur by the year 2050 (see page 32): –
https://actuaries.org.uk/news-and-media-releases/news-articles/2025/jan/16-jan-25-planetary-solvency-finding-our-balance-with-nature/
We now know the UK population is a part of the 4 billion lives that are at risk. It is up to everyone of us to demand politicians, business and the media help to prepare our nation for this unprecedented threat. We must never vote for a political party that would either slow the pace of decarbonising the economy or increase greenhouse gas emissions. Reform UK and the Conservative Party are currently opposed to the UK’s 2050 Net-Zero target, seeking to slow efforts to move away from fossil fuels. The Labour Party is currently supportive of expanding some polluting activities, including aviation. These policies are criminal offences under ICCA 2001 because they contribute to mass death, mass suffering and the beginning of the annihilation of low-lying island states (ICCA 2001 – International criminal Court Act 2001). Such policies will contribute to the decimation of the UK population.
